光華講壇——社會(huì)名流與企業(yè)家論壇第6813期
主題：Endogenous Migration Restrictions and Population Aging in China內(nèi)生性人口落戶(hù)限制與人口老年化
主講人：山東大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院 張吉鵬教授
主持人：中國(guó)西部經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院 劉忠教授
時(shí)間：10月31日9:45-11:45
地點(diǎn)：柳林校區(qū)格致樓1011會(huì)議室
主辦單位：中國(guó)西部經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院 科研處
主持人簡(jiǎn)介：
張吉鵬，山東大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院教授，山東大學(xué)杰出中青年學(xué)者，國(guó)家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目首席專(zhuān)家。主要研究方向?yàn)閯趧?dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)、公共財(cái)政、共同富裕與收入分配，在《中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)》《經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》和International Economic Review等國(guó)內(nèi)外頂級(jí)期刊發(fā)表論文，獲高等學(xué)?？茖W(xué)研究?jī)?yōu)秀成果獎(jiǎng)（人文社會(huì)科學(xué)），主持國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目和招商局慈善基金會(huì)團(tuán)隊(duì)課題。主持教學(xué)改革項(xiàng)目，獲本科生和研究生教學(xué)成果獎(jiǎng)，指導(dǎo)多名學(xué)生獲得國(guó)家獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金、省優(yōu)秀畢業(yè)生、優(yōu)秀博士論文獎(jiǎng)和“當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目”。
內(nèi)容提要：
In this lecture, Professor Zhang will introduce a study in which he and his coauthors investigate how local governments in China respond to demographic shifts by reducing migration restrictions through Hukou reform. The authors construct a novel measure of reform intensity by combining a data-driven approach with textual analysis of official policy documents. By quantifying the share of pre-reform migrants who would qualify for local urban Hukou under the most recent settlement criteria, the measure that they construct captures the endogenous constraints embedded in local settlement policies. Using this measure, the study estimates the impact of local population aging on Hukou policy changes. It is found that cities with higher aging levels are more likely to lower thresholds for migrant settlement, with stronger effects in prefectures facing lower fertility rates. Mechanism analysis further highlights the role of population aging as a driver of labor market deregulation and urban development.
講座將分享關(guān)于中國(guó)地方政府如何通過(guò)戶(hù)籍制度改革降低人口落戶(hù)限制以應(yīng)對(duì)人口結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的研究?jī)?nèi)容。我們采用數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)與官方政策文件文本分析相結(jié)合的方式，構(gòu)建了一套測(cè)量改革力度的新指標(biāo)。通過(guò)量化符合最新落戶(hù)條件的原有遷移人口比例，該指標(biāo)揭示了地方落戶(hù)政策中內(nèi)嵌的內(nèi)生性限制因素，并運(yùn)用這一測(cè)量工具評(píng)估了當(dāng)?shù)厝丝诶淆g化對(duì)戶(hù)籍政策調(diào)整的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：老齡化程度越高的城市越傾向于降低移民落戶(hù)門(mén)檻，且在生育率較低的地級(jí)市這種效應(yīng)更為顯著。機(jī)制分析進(jìn)一步凸顯出人口老齡化作為勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)放松管制與城市發(fā)展驅(qū)動(dòng)力的重要作用。
