光華講壇——社會(huì)名流與企業(yè)家論壇第6763期
主題：Chasing Stars: The Analyst Playbook for Winning Votes追逐明星：分析師贏(yíng)得選票的制勝指南
主講人：馬薩諸塞大學(xué)洛厄爾分校曼寧商學(xué)院 張馳副教授
主持人：會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院 金智教授
時(shí)間：6月17日15:00-17:00
地點(diǎn)：柳林校區(qū)誠(chéng)正樓650會(huì)議室
主辦單位：會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院 科研處
主講人簡(jiǎn)介：
張馳于天普大學(xué)?？怂股虒W(xué)院獲得博士學(xué)位，現(xiàn)任馬薩諸塞大學(xué)洛厄爾分校曼寧商學(xué)院金融系助理教授。張教授的研究興趣包括高管薪酬、企業(yè)創(chuàng)新、證券分析師、賣(mài)空與工作場(chǎng)所安全。張教授的研究成果發(fā)表在Journal Accounting Research、Management Science、Contemporary Accounting Research、Journal of Business Ethics、Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis、Journal of Corporate Finance、Journal of Accounting and Public Policy、Journal of Financial Markets、Financial Management、Journal of Empirical Finance、The Financial Review等國(guó)際知名期刊。
內(nèi)容提要：
The Star Analyst competition offers a coveted opportunity for career advancement and alleviating career concerns. In 2019, Institutional Investor magazine replaced AUM-based vote weighting by commission-based vote weighting. Leveraging this major rule change as an exogenous shock, analysts strategically shift to issue more optimistic forecasts for the holdings of high-commission funds in a manner that is consistent with an attempt to gain favor from voting managers. This strategic optimism is not a correction from conservatism, as their earnings forecast fail to align with actual earnings and instead lead to larger forecast errors. Cross-sectional results show that analysts from large brokerage house display lower levels of strategic optimism, while the optimism is disproportionately stronger toward large firms. Additional analysis reveals that analysts maintain similar forecast frequency but issue quicker optimistic forecasts for target firms. This lectures focus on the issue that analysts employ strategic optimism to curry favor with fund managers in an effort to win votes.
《明星分析師》評(píng)選為分析師職業(yè)晉升和緩解職業(yè)焦慮提供了寶貴契機(jī)。2019年，《機(jī)構(gòu)投資者》雜志用基于傭金的投票權(quán)重取代了基于資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模（AUM）的投票權(quán)重。利用這一重大規(guī)則變化作為外生沖擊，分析師會(huì)策略性地轉(zhuǎn)而對(duì)高傭金基金的持倉(cāng)發(fā)布更樂(lè)觀(guān)的預(yù)測(cè)，這與試圖獲得投票經(jīng)理的青睞是一致的。這種策略性的樂(lè)觀(guān)主義并不是對(duì)保守主義的修正，因?yàn)樗麄兊挠A(yù)測(cè)不僅沒(méi)有與實(shí)際盈利一致，反而導(dǎo)致了更大的預(yù)測(cè)誤差。橫截面結(jié)果表明，來(lái)自大型券商公司的分析師表現(xiàn)出較低的策略性樂(lè)觀(guān)程度，而對(duì)大型公司的策略性樂(lè)觀(guān)程度更高。進(jìn)一步分析的研究結(jié)論還表明分析師保持著類(lèi)似的預(yù)測(cè)頻率，但會(huì)對(duì)目標(biāo)公司發(fā)布更快的樂(lè)觀(guān)預(yù)測(cè)。本次講座主要探討了分析師利用策略性樂(lè)觀(guān)主義來(lái)迎合基金經(jīng)理，以此作為獲取投票支持的競(jìng)逐策略問(wèn)題。
